Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250718 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  26.1  30.4  26.8  32.0  24.5  37.0  31.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  77.0  64.0  59.0  44.0  37.0  32.0  36.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0 128.0 132.0  93.0  65.0  65.0  59.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        7.2%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       29.3%       46.3%       37.8%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       26.4%       19.9%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%       26.4%       17.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       23.6%       12.3%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%       41.5%       29.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.1%       19.4%       13.2%
 55kt / 48h       21.9%       22.9%       22.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.6%       15.1%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h       11.0%       24.0%       17.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 WP092025 250718 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  26.1  30.4  26.8  32.0  24.5  37.0  31.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  83.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%