Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  24.0  30.1  35.0  29.6  37.4  37.6  40.4  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  58.0  52.0  39.0  35.0  42.0  32.0  27.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  61.0  69.0  57.0  29.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  84.0  83.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.4%       12.5%       13.5%
 25kt / 24h       31.7%       44.8%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%       30.5%       24.6%
 35kt / 24h       18.8%       30.5%       24.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%       28.9%       16.4%
 45kt / 36h       16.7%       31.0%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        6.5%       12.7%        9.6%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%       11.9%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        5.2%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        6.6%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP092025 250719 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  24.0  30.1  35.0  29.6  37.4  37.6  40.4  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  84.0  83.0  86.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%