Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250719 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  38.0  30.0  28.3  34.1  39.5  46.3  56.4  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  38.0  37.0  31.0  47.0  34.0  14.0  17.5  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  56.0  46.0  33.0  -1.0 -14.0  19.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  78.0  77.0  83.0  83.0  87.0  88.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -12.0  -7.0  -2.0   5.0  13.0  10.0 -10.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       12.5%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        6.1%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        6.1%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.5%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        6.9%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP092025 250719 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  38.0  30.0  28.3  34.1  39.5  46.3  56.4  F  F  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  78.0  77.0  83.0  83.0  87.0  88.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -12.0  -7.0  -2.0   5.0  13.0  10.0 -10.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%