Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092025 250719 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 116.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.9 29.1 27.3 29.3 40.2 47.6 53.3 52.8 U N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 33.0 31.0 42.0 35.0 28.0 24.0 30.0 U U U N U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 32.0 27.0 33.0 -6.0 9.0 29.0 53.0 U N U N U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 89.0 86.0 86.0 88.0 87.0 90.0 88.0 89.0 VF F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -8.0 0.0 -2.0 1.0 8.0 19.0 15.0 F F N N N U VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.0% 5.2% 7.6% 25kt / 24h 14.2% 23.9% 19.1% 30kt / 24h 13.0% 14.9% 13.9% 35kt / 24h 13.0% 14.9% 13.9% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 13.8% 7.8% 45kt / 36h 4.3% 10.8% 7.5% 55kt / 36h 1.5% 3.5% 2.5% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 2.5% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 WP092025 250719 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 116.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.9 29.1 27.3 29.3 40.2 47.6 53.3 52.8 F N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 89.0 86.0 86.0 88.0 87.0 90.0 88.0 89.0 VU U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -8.0 0.0 -2.0 1.0 8.0 19.0 15.0 U U N N N F VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%