Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  28.5  28.2  32.6  44.6  49.2  53.9  53.2  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  31.0  35.0  47.0  30.0  24.0  24.0  28.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  27.0  33.0  11.0 -20.0   5.0  47.0  11.0  N  U  N  U VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  82.0  83.0  84.0  87.0  86.0  88.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  16.0  11.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.1%       10.0%       12.1%
 25kt / 24h       21.3%       34.2%       27.7%
 30kt / 24h       20.5%       26.7%       23.6%
 35kt / 24h       20.5%       26.7%       23.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       23.5%       13.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       11.8%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        3.9%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP092025 250720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  28.5  28.2  32.6  44.6  49.2  53.9  53.2  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  82.0  83.0  84.0  87.0  86.0  88.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  16.0  11.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%