Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092025 250720 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 113.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 65.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 27.1 28.8 34.7 39.7 45.6 43.2 41.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 39.0 51.0 41.0 33.0 28.0 28.0 33.0 U U N N U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 47.0 20.0 1.0 41.0 33.0 57.0 23.0 N N U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 81.0 81.0 83.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 86.0 F F F F F F VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 17.0 29.0 0.0 N N N N N U VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 20.8% 17.1% 19.0% 25kt / 24h 32.3% 43.9% 38.1% 30kt / 24h 32.3% 39.5% 35.9% 35kt / 24h 32.3% 39.5% 35.9% 40kt / 24h 5.2% 35.4% 20.3% 45kt / 36h 8.6% 17.3% 12.9% 55kt / 36h 2.8% 6.3% 4.5% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 4.8% 2.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.38 WP092025 250720 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 113.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 27.1 28.8 34.7 39.7 45.6 43.2 41.0 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 81.0 81.0 83.0 86.0 86.0 87.0 86.0 U U U U U U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 17.0 29.0 0.0 N N N N N F VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%