Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  30.3  34.4  37.8  42.5  43.7  48.7  34.3  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  51.0  44.0  35.0  33.0  27.0  27.0  33.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  20.0   1.0  33.0  43.0  39.0  92.0   8.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  82.0  84.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  85.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   8.0  10.0  33.0  30.0  29.0   3.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.1%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%        8.4%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        4.3%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%        4.0%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP092025 250720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  30.3  34.4  37.8  42.5  43.7  48.7  34.3  N  N  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  82.0  84.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  85.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   8.0  10.0  33.0  30.0  29.0   3.0  N  N  F  F VF VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%