Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092025 250720 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 110.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.1 37.4 41.7 35.8 42.6 47.0 46.4 36.8 U U VU U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 46.0 44.0 41.0 34.0 27.0 29.0 33.0 40.0 N N N U U U U N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 -3.0 3.0 16.0 44.0 45.0 22.0 16.0 U U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 89.0 89.0 88.0 89.0 88.0 89.0 85.0 88.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 18.0 10.0 -6.0 25.0 -1.0 2.0 N N VU U F VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.80 WP092025 250720 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.60 110.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.1 37.4 41.7 35.8 42.6 47.0 46.4 36.8 F F VF F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 89.0 89.0 88.0 89.0 88.0 89.0 85.0 88.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 18.0 10.0 -6.0 25.0 -1.0 2.0 N N VF F U VF N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%