Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  39.7  35.9  39.4  44.4  44.4  40.5  37.1  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  40.0  39.0  32.0  14.0  29.0  34.0  39.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0   3.0  16.0  19.0  25.0  41.0  20.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  82.0  85.0  87.0  86.0  87.0  85.0  88.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  18.0  10.0  -7.0  15.0   5.0   1.0   2.0  N VU  U  F  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 WP092025 250721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  39.7  35.9  39.4  44.4  44.4  40.5  37.1  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  82.0  85.0  87.0  86.0  87.0  85.0  88.0  U  U  U VU  U VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  18.0  10.0  -7.0  15.0   5.0   1.0   2.0  N VF  F  U  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%