Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.0  36.4  37.8  42.3  42.8  39.4  32.5  26.5  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  40.0  37.0  34.0  30.0  34.0  39.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   3.0 -18.0  11.0  67.0   2.0 -26.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  86.0  86.0  88.0  86.0  88.0  84.0  F  F  F  F VF  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0   3.0  24.0  30.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  U  N VU VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.98

 WP092025 250721 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    109.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.0  36.4  37.8  42.3  42.8  39.4  32.5  26.5  F  F  F VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  83.0  86.0  86.0  88.0  86.0  88.0  84.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   8.0   3.0  24.0  30.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  F  N VF VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%