Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.7  41.8  41.5  43.6  51.1  35.4  34.1  25.5  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  34.0  39.0  39.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  31.0   9.0  12.0  16.0  -7.0  20.0 -33.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  85.0  88.0  86.0  87.0  83.0  79.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   9.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.4%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        5.8%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        2.2%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 WP092025 250721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.7  41.8  41.5  43.6  51.1  35.4  34.1  25.5  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  85.0  88.0  86.0  87.0  83.0  79.0  U  U  U VU  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   9.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%