Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.1  41.3  40.4  43.0  43.0  40.8  29.9  28.6  U VU  U VU VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  35.0  36.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0   8.0  37.0  46.0   6.0   4.0  14.0  25.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  87.0  82.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 WP092025 250722 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.1  41.3  40.4  43.0  43.0  40.8  29.9  28.6  F VF  F VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  87.0  82.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%