Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  38.1  39.8  38.4  40.3  33.5  34.5  19.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  33.0  35.0  32.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  32.0  43.0  33.0  41.0   5.0  20.0  44.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  87.0  84.0  81.0  72.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 WP092025 250722 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  38.1  39.8  38.4  40.3  33.5  34.5  19.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  87.0  84.0  81.0  72.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%