Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.0  52.5  47.4  42.9  37.4  33.0  35.2  20.8 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  33.0  33.0  35.0  35.0  32.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  33.0  21.0  -1.0   6.0  40.0  93.0 101.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  87.0  83.0  77.0  68.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 WP092025 250722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        47.0  52.5  47.4  42.9  37.4  33.0  35.2  20.8 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  87.0  83.0  77.0  68.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0   7.0   9.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%