Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092025 250722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    105.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.3  51.4  48.2  45.4  31.3  21.5  14.9  14.2 VU VU VU VU  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  12.0  13.0  14.0  35.0  36.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0   3.0  -2.0 -12.0  36.0  42.0  22.0  34.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  86.0  88.0  93.0  90.0  89.0  84.0  82.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.90

 WP092025 250722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    105.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.3  51.4  48.2  45.4  31.3  21.5  14.9  14.2 VF VF VF VF  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   87.0  86.0  88.0  93.0  90.0  89.0  84.0  82.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%