Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102025 250722 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 132.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 158.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 24.5 16.3 23.0 19.3 34.5 15.5 21.8 F N F N N U F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 90.0 76.0 67.0 64.0 54.0 55.0 61.0 59.0 F N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 104.0 134.0 175.0 94.0 92.0 57.0 68.0 F F VF VF F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 76.0 78.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 72.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 8.0 9.0 18.0 14.0 11.0 4.0 1.0 N U U VU U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 5.6% 3.4% 25kt / 24h 31.6% 58.4% 45.0% 30kt / 24h 10.7% 37.1% 23.9% 35kt / 24h 5.1% 37.1% 21.1% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 30.9% 15.7% 45kt / 36h 24.0% 69.2% 46.6% 55kt / 36h 11.8% 48.1% 29.9% 55kt / 48h 46.5% 47.1% 46.8% 70kt / 48h 25.2% 37.3% 31.2% 65kt / 72h 59.0% 65.4% 62.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP102025 250722 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 132.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 158.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 24.5 16.3 23.0 19.3 34.5 15.5 21.8 U N U N N F U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 76.0 78.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 72.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 8.0 9.0 18.0 14.0 11.0 4.0 1.0 N F F VF F F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%