Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  16.9  26.4  25.2  23.3  25.9  22.4  19.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  65.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 133.0 175.0 104.0  83.0  57.0  87.0  18.0  F VF VF  F  N  N  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0  15.0   2.0   5.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.9%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.5%       39.1%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%       17.7%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       17.0%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       16.4%        8.8%
 45kt / 36h       17.9%       49.8%       33.8%
 55kt / 36h        8.6%       25.7%       17.2%
 55kt / 48h       40.4%       26.2%       33.3%
 70kt / 48h       21.3%       19.9%       20.6%
 65kt / 72h       49.0%       49.2%       49.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP102025 250722 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  16.9  26.4  25.2  23.3  25.9  22.4  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   7.0  15.0   2.0   5.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%