Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.6  25.2  24.8  32.8  20.3  27.8  17.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  60.0  52.0  42.0  44.0  59.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   136.0 116.0  99.0  87.0 120.0  35.0  35.0  41.0 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       15.1%       31.9%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%       13.8%       10.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       13.2%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       13.2%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.0%       35.2%       24.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.6%       14.2%        9.9%
 55kt / 48h       28.6%       20.9%       24.7%
 70kt / 48h       12.5%       14.2%       13.4%
 65kt / 72h       34.3%       36.0%       35.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP102025 250722 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  20.6  25.2  24.8  32.8  20.3  27.8  17.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  76.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%