Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  27.5  20.0  24.6  30.6  23.3  29.3  16.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  54.0  53.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  35.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0  99.0  86.0 110.0  93.0  37.0  52.0  29.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -7.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        5.1%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       25.6%       42.5%       34.0%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       23.0%       18.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       23.0%       15.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       23.0%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       38.9%       28.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.2%       16.9%       12.6%
 55kt / 48h       30.7%       21.4%       26.1%
 70kt / 48h       13.7%       15.0%       14.4%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%       29.5%       26.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP102025 250723 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  27.5  20.0  24.6  30.6  23.3  29.3  16.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  71.0  73.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  72.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -7.0   2.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%