Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  28.5  22.0  37.7  30.0  28.2  16.4  12.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  49.0  48.0  48.0  55.0  38.0  27.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  93.0 111.0  98.0  14.0  18.0 -27.0  -5.0  N  F  F  F  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        4.5%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       18.4%       30.1%       24.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.2%       14.5%       12.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       14.5%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       14.5%        8.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.0%       22.1%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%        7.6%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%        9.3%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        4.7%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%       15.0%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP102025 250723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  28.5  22.0  37.7  30.0  28.2  16.4  12.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   2.0   6.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%