Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  33.2  24.5  27.7  22.6  16.3   9.8  16.2  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  57.0  59.0  63.0  47.0  37.0  64.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  71.0  48.0  42.0  32.0  11.0 -10.0  25.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  67.0  76.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   7.0   5.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       11.6%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        4.1%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.5%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.5%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       10.0%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        2.5%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%        7.4%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        2.7%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       14.8%       14.5%       14.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP102025 250724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  33.2  24.5  27.7  22.6  16.3   9.8  16.2  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  70.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  73.0  67.0  76.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   7.0   5.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%