Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  22.0  30.5  22.7  14.8  14.8  14.8  14.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  49.0  44.0  30.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0 100.0  62.0   4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  68.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        8.1%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        8.5%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%        5.6%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        2.2%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        8.9%        7.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP102025 250724 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  22.0  30.5  22.7  14.8  14.8  14.8  14.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  68.0  63.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%