Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  34.4  22.7  12.7  10.1  16.4  19.7  17.7  N  U  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  28.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  28.0  35.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 120.1 120.1 115.7 115.7 127.0 130.0 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  36.0  17.0 -12.0  16.0 -22.0  44.0   7.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  72.0  71.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.9%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.8%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        2.9%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        1.2%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        6.1%        5.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP102025 250724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  34.4  22.7  12.7  10.1  16.4  19.7  17.7  N  F  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  72.0  71.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%