Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    123.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  22.7  13.1  16.5   8.5  13.6  22.5   9.5  U  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  26.0  29.0  29.0  31.0  44.0  39.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  17.0 -13.0  -5.0  -7.0  14.0  25.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  71.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.6%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        8.6%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        2.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%        4.8%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.6%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.5%       10.8%        8.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 WP102025 250725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    123.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  22.7  13.1  16.5   8.5  13.6  22.5   9.5  F  N  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  71.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%