Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  13.0  18.5  10.0  14.9  14.9  14.3  17.9  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  37.0  60.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 122.9 122.9 122.9 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0 -17.0  -1.0  14.0  13.0  60.0  30.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  76.0  76.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        6.8%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%        5.2%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        2.6%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h       14.7%       15.2%       14.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 WP102025 250725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    122.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  13.0  18.5  10.0  14.9  14.9  14.3  17.9  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  76.0  76.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%