Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    120.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  11.1  20.7  22.0  19.7  13.2  18.4   9.3  N  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  26.0  50.0  33.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 119.4 119.4 119.4 137.0 140.0 132.3 117.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   9.0  -9.0   0.0  20.0   8.0  36.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  78.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       10.0%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.0%        4.2%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        3.9%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       14.1%        9.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 WP102025 250726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    120.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  11.1  20.7  22.0  19.7  13.2  18.4   9.3  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  78.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%