Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  20.8  24.1  10.7  16.1  16.6  21.6  35.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  27.0  29.0  34.0  49.0  24.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 119.4 119.4 127.9 140.0 140.0 125.7  84.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -3.0   0.0  10.0  30.0  33.0  14.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  68.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.0%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       14.2%        7.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.8%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%        6.9%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        6.1%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        8.5%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 WP102025 250726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.0  20.8  24.1  10.7  16.1  16.6  21.6  35.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  68.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%