Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  23.2  13.3  14.5  12.9  15.5  11.2  20.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  27.0  29.0  35.0  31.0  11.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.6 122.4 124.4 132.9 145.0 126.5 114.8 116.6  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   0.0  27.0  14.0  24.0   8.0  17.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.7%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.3%        3.8%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        3.1%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%        9.2%        6.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 WP102025 250726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.