Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  13.6  17.0  13.1  20.3  15.8  26.2  22.3  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  33.0  38.0  44.0  33.0  14.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.4 132.9 142.0 145.0 132.9 122.4 109.4  98.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  27.0  43.0  27.0  33.0  16.0  44.0  25.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   4.0   0.0  -6.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.7%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.7%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        2.7%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.3%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        5.2%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 WP102025 250726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  13.6  17.0  13.1  20.3  15.8  26.2  22.3  N  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   4.0   0.0  -6.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%