Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102025 250727 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 119.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.90 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 16.7 22.5 16.1 19.2 9.1 12.5 15.6 F F N F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 19.0 12.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 116.6 126.5 116.6 116.6 116.6 116.6 111.2 120.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 -1.0 3.0 23.0 22.0 26.0 38.0 37.0 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 69.0 72.0 70.0 70.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 4.5% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 15.0% 7.6% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 6.1% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 5.9% 2.0% 3.9% 70kt / 48h 2.0% 4.9% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 11.5% 6.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 WP102025 250727 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 119.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.