Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102025 250727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  17.7  14.0  10.8  19.1  12.1  12.4  12.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  20.0  19.0  21.0  35.0  34.0  33.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        126.5 126.5 130.7 124.4 135.1 130.7 135.1 135.1  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   0.0  22.0  54.0  21.0  45.0  26.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       12.5%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        5.4%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.3%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       30.8%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%       15.5%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.2%        7.3%       12.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.3%       14.3%       10.8%
 65kt / 72h       11.8%       35.7%       23.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.62

 WP102025 250727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  17.7  14.0  10.8  19.1  12.1  12.4  12.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%