Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250723 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 120.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 13.1 17.1 27.9 30.1 48.2 48.3 42.0 F F F N N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 88.0 86.0 85.0 83.0 84.0 96.0 88.0 58.0 F N N N N F F N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 67.0 53.0 61.0 53.0 41.0 60.0 124.0 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 75.0 75.0 77.0 74.0 68.0 69.0 80.0 F F F F N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 8.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.3% 19.9% 14.6% 25kt / 24h 48.1% 72.2% 60.2% 30kt / 24h 24.8% 58.4% 41.6% 35kt / 24h 16.9% 58.4% 37.6% 40kt / 24h 5.0% 54.0% 29.5% 45kt / 36h 32.3% 77.6% 54.9% 55kt / 36h 22.9% 63.5% 43.2% 55kt / 48h 41.2% 36.4% 38.8% 70kt / 48h 22.8% 34.0% 28.4% 65kt / 72h 27.7% 33.2% 30.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 WP112025 250723 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 120.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 13.1 17.1 27.9 30.1 48.2 48.3 42.0 U U N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 75.0 75.0 77.0 74.0 68.0 69.0 80.0 U U U U N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 8.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%