Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.7  23.8  21.9  26.6  39.4  41.0  40.3  F  F  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  89.0 106.0  63.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   172.0 126.0 117.0 106.0  65.0 -12.0  -5.0  99.0 VF  F  F  F  N  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  77.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  71.0  80.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  -6.0  -6.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.3%       22.8%       18.0%
 25kt / 24h       65.0%       80.9%       72.9%
 30kt / 24h       37.7%       71.5%       54.6%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       71.5%       48.3%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       67.6%       38.7%
 45kt / 36h       47.0%       83.9%       65.4%
 55kt / 36h       30.1%       72.0%       51.1%
 55kt / 48h       49.2%       52.9%       51.1%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       48.8%       37.0%
 65kt / 72h       27.3%       41.9%       34.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 WP112025 250723 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    119.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.7  23.8  21.9  26.6  39.4  41.0  40.3  U  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  77.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  71.0  80.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  -6.0  -6.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%