Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250723 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 21.7 21.7 21.6 28.3 33.9 47.3 30.4 F N N N N U VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 83.0 80.0 83.0 83.0 87.0 100.0 56.0 50.0 N N N N N F N N Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 126.0 117.0 106.0 63.0 5.0 -9.0 19.0 36.0 F F F N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 76.0 76.0 74.0 68.0 66.0 77.0 74.0 N F F N N N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 -1.0 5.0 -10.0 13.0 N N N N N N F U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.3% 22.9% 18.6% 25kt / 24h 62.9% 78.3% 70.6% 30kt / 24h 39.5% 69.0% 54.3% 35kt / 24h 25.2% 69.0% 47.1% 40kt / 24h 12.7% 66.8% 39.7% 45kt / 36h 42.7% 77.2% 59.9% 55kt / 36h 27.9% 61.7% 44.8% 55kt / 48h 46.9% 45.8% 46.4% 70kt / 48h 25.1% 37.0% 31.1% 65kt / 72h 22.9% 31.7% 27.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 WP112025 250723 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 21.7 21.7 21.6 28.3 33.9 47.3 30.4 U N N N N F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 76.0 76.0 74.0 68.0 66.0 77.0 74.0 N U U N N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 -1.0 5.0 -10.0 13.0 N N N N N N U F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%