Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  22.2  25.0  20.8  40.5  38.2  26.1  39.1  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  80.0  83.0  86.0  95.0  71.0  46.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  88.0  72.0  43.0  -6.0  -2.0  74.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  77.0  63.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   1.0 -18.0   1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       62.4%       42.0%       52.2%
 25kt / 24h       75.2%       79.9%       77.6%
 30kt / 24h       71.9%       78.6%       75.2%
 35kt / 24h       62.2%       78.6%       70.4%
 40kt / 24h       48.4%       78.6%       63.5%
 45kt / 36h       46.1%       58.3%       52.2%
 55kt / 36h       30.6%       37.7%       34.1%
 55kt / 48h       26.0%       23.7%       24.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.8%       12.7%       11.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%       12.8%        8.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP112025 250723 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    118.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  22.2  25.0  20.8  40.5  38.2  26.1  39.1  U  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  77.0  63.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   1.0 -18.0   1.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%