Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  27.5  32.9  36.2  45.3  44.7  44.7  44.7  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  82.0  86.0  91.0 102.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  50.0   1.0   9.0  23.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  F  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  68.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -7.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.5%       36.5%       52.5%
 25kt / 24h       61.0%       60.8%       60.9%
 30kt / 24h       58.7%       56.0%       57.3%
 35kt / 24h       55.7%       56.0%       55.9%
 40kt / 24h       43.2%       56.0%       49.6%
 45kt / 36h       35.3%       28.9%       32.1%
 55kt / 36h       20.7%       11.8%       16.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%        8.2%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        2.6%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.6%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP112025 250724 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  27.5  32.9  36.2  45.3  44.7  44.7  44.7  N  N  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  68.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -7.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%