Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250724 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 23.9 35.8 42.1 30.9 31.9 20.0 17.0 N N U VU U U N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 84.0 87.0 89.0 96.0 78.0 56.0 40.0 40.0 N N F F N N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 20.0 25.0 21.0 -9.0 16.0 -3.0 20.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 71.0 68.0 68.0 72.0 80.0 81.0 78.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -7.0 -1.0 -13.0 -6.0 3.0 0.0 N N F N VF F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 61.5% 33.4% 47.4% 25kt / 24h 53.5% 53.1% 53.3% 30kt / 24h 51.2% 45.8% 48.5% 35kt / 24h 51.2% 45.8% 48.5% 40kt / 24h 24.4% 45.5% 35.0% 45kt / 36h 27.6% 24.3% 25.9% 55kt / 36h 15.2% 9.7% 12.4% 55kt / 48h 8.1% 10.2% 9.1% 70kt / 48h 2.0% 3.2% 2.6% 65kt / 72h 1.2% 7.0% 4.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.62 WP112025 250724 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 23.9 35.8 42.1 30.9 31.9 20.0 17.0 N N F VF N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 71.0 68.0 68.0 72.0 80.0 81.0 78.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -7.0 -1.0 -13.0 -6.0 3.0 0.0 N N U N VU U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%