Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112025 250724 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 58.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 35.7 45.9 36.7 26.8 16.5 13.1 20.1 N U VU U N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 89.0 98.0 100.0 82.0 61.0 53.0 46.0 43.0 F F F N N N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 25.0 21.0 -11.0 -4.0 -14.0 49.0 100.0 U U U U U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 69.0 69.0 70.0 79.0 75.0 78.0 77.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -9.0 -6.0 11.0 -7.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 N F F U F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.5% 4.0% 4.8% 25kt / 24h 7.7% 11.7% 9.7% 30kt / 24h 5.0% 6.4% 5.7% 35kt / 24h 3.2% 5.9% 4.5% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 4.7% 2.9% 45kt / 36h 4.4% 3.4% 3.9% 55kt / 36h 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 3.5% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 2.8% 3.3% 3.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 WP112025 250724 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.2 35.7 45.9 36.7 26.8 16.5 13.1 20.1 N F VF F N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 69.0 69.0 70.0 79.0 75.0 78.0 77.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -9.0 -6.0 11.0 -7.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 N U U F U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3%