Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  32.4  29.5  27.3  34.2  23.7  17.9  12.8  N  U  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  96.0  87.0  77.0  61.0  49.0  42.0  43.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  14.0  42.0   8.0  78.0  54.0  89.0  60.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  78.0  80.0  79.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   0.0 -11.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        5.0%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       23.3%       18.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.3%       14.7%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       14.1%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       11.7%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%        7.5%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        6.7%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%        6.3%        8.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP112025 250724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    120.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  32.4  29.5  27.3  34.2  23.7  17.9  12.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  78.0  80.0  79.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   0.0 -11.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%