Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  33.6  29.6  35.9  28.6  24.2  18.1  19.3  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0 100.0  82.0  71.0  59.0  50.0  46.0  50.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  41.0   7.0  62.0  61.0  68.0  70.0  99.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  70.0  75.0  78.0  82.0  77.0  74.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -2.0  -5.0 -11.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h       14.3%        4.4%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP112025 250725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  33.6  29.6  35.9  28.6  24.2  18.1  19.3  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  70.0  75.0  78.0  82.0  77.0  74.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -2.0  -5.0 -11.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%