Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    120.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.8  32.5  25.7  12.4  14.7  12.8  15.4  N  N  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   89.0  82.0  77.0  67.0  60.0  55.0  55.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  17.0  69.0  57.0  21.0  65.0  28.0  68.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -8.0 -10.0   4.0   6.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        7.9%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%        6.2%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        9.3%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.9%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h       24.8%       12.9%       18.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP112025 250725 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    120.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  25.8  32.5  25.7  12.4  14.7  12.8  15.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -8.0 -10.0   4.0   6.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%