Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  30.4  24.2  15.0  12.7  25.2  19.5  25.4  U  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  69.0  60.0  56.0  49.0  44.0  46.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  69.0  46.0  31.0  37.0  20.0  13.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  79.0  75.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -8.0 VF  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.3%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        5.1%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.0%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%        4.3%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.2%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h       12.2%        6.4%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP112025 250725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  30.4  24.2  15.0  12.7  25.2  19.5  25.4  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  76.0  74.0  79.0  75.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -8.0 VU  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%