Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  21.3  22.5  24.7  14.8  19.8  13.9  16.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  39.0   8.0  13.0  31.0  22.0  22.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  75.0  77.0  79.0  70.0  63.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        2.8%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h       14.2%        7.1%       10.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP112025 250725 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  21.3  22.5  24.7  14.8  19.8  13.9  16.1  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  75.0  77.0  79.0  70.0  63.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%