Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  17.4  17.5  13.0  23.2  18.6  20.5  14.5  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  32.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 119.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  29.0  23.0  27.0   2.0  20.0  35.0  30.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.7%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.2%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.3%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.9%        5.2%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.9%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h       11.5%       10.3%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP112025 250726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  17.4  17.5  13.0  23.2  18.6  20.5  14.5  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%