Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  20.0  14.9  13.5  14.0  16.6  16.5  30.9  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  50.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  25.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 130.1  84.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  35.0   7.0  33.0  25.0  48.0  -1.0  44.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  76.0  76.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.7%       17.0%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        7.1%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        5.9%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       25.1%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        9.9%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       20.1%       18.7%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%       11.4%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%       18.5%       16.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP112025 250726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  20.0  14.9  13.5  14.0  16.6  16.5  30.9  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  76.0  76.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%