Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  14.4  13.5  21.7  10.3  16.8  16.7  28.2  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  30.0  16.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 125.7 108.0 111.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0   7.0  30.0  23.0  45.0  10.0  20.0  22.0  N  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  73.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  -9.0   3.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       20.0%       12.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        8.4%        5.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        7.2%        4.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        7.0%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       33.8%       20.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%       15.6%        9.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.9%       19.3%       19.6%
 70kt / 48h        8.4%       13.7%       11.0%
 65kt / 72h        9.8%       20.3%       15.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 WP112025 250726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  14.4  13.5  21.7  10.3  16.8  16.7  28.2  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  73.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   0.0  -3.0   4.0  -9.0   3.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%