Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.0  19.3  16.1  17.0  14.0  25.7  20.8  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  42.0  42.0  44.0  30.0  21.0   8.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 119.4 111.6 102.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  53.0  29.0   8.0  25.0   0.0  53.0  18.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       16.4%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        6.1%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.2%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       26.4%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%       10.4%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       16.4%       11.4%       13.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.4%        8.3%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%       12.1%        8.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP112025 250726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.0  19.3  16.1  17.0  14.0  25.7  20.8  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%