Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  12.8  10.4  10.2  10.6   9.3  14.9  18.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  44.0  47.0  48.0  33.0  13.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 134.6 119.4 117.4 117.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   0.0   1.0   8.0   5.0  25.0  21.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       35.1%       21.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%       19.7%       11.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       18.2%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       17.0%        8.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       51.3%       30.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.2%       32.8%       20.0%
 55kt / 48h       23.2%       28.9%       26.0%
 70kt / 48h       11.4%       26.1%       18.8%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%       36.2%       23.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP112025 250727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.4  12.8  10.4  10.2  10.6   9.3  14.9  18.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%