Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  12.2  10.2  11.6   9.5  13.2  12.4  28.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  43.0  43.0  50.0  33.0  31.0  11.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 122.9 104.8  97.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   4.0  11.0  18.0  -2.0  43.0  19.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        8.7%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       56.4%       38.4%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       43.2%       28.3%
 35kt / 24h       13.3%       43.2%       28.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       38.9%       19.6%
 45kt / 36h       17.3%       72.7%       45.0%
 55kt / 36h       13.5%       61.3%       37.4%
 55kt / 48h       29.5%       50.3%       39.9%
 70kt / 48h       15.7%       47.2%       31.4%
 65kt / 72h       10.0%       43.3%       26.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 WP112025 250727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    129.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    155.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  12.2  10.2  11.6   9.5  13.2  12.4  28.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%