Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112025 250727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  11.4  16.7  14.0  13.8  15.5  19.6  25.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  43.0  46.0  50.0  54.0  33.0  26.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6 104.4  94.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  11.0  21.0  38.0   6.0  40.0  20.0  34.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.4%       21.8%       17.6%
 25kt / 24h       39.4%       68.5%       54.0%
 30kt / 24h       31.5%       60.5%       46.0%
 35kt / 24h       31.5%       60.5%       46.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       59.5%       32.3%
 45kt / 36h       34.3%       78.6%       56.4%
 55kt / 36h       26.3%       69.4%       47.9%
 55kt / 48h       28.5%       54.7%       41.6%
 70kt / 48h       14.7%       49.5%       32.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.7%       41.5%       24.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP112025 250727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  11.4  16.7  14.0  13.8  15.5  19.6  25.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%